N.Z. Disasters Slow GDP Before Rebound

Australia and New Zealand will grow at a slower pace than previously forecast this Buy nike running shoes onlineyear as floods and earthquakes disrupt their economies before higher investment spurs expansions in 2012, the International Monetar Fund said.

Australia’s gross domestic product will increase 3 percent in 2011, half a percentage point lower than an October estimate, the IMF said in its semi-annual World Economic Outlook. New Zealand’s GDP will rise 0.9 percent, down from last month’s prediction of 1 percent and last year’s 3.2 percent, it said.

“In Australia, flooding in key mining and agricultural regions is expected to subtract from growth in early 2011, but over the year this will be offset by stronger private investment,” the Washington-based IMF said in today’s report. While “earthquakes will slow activity in New Zealand this year,” growth will strengthen in 2012 as reconstruction of the South Island city of Christchurch intensifies.

Australia’s central bank paused interest-rate increases this year to allow Queensland state to recover from torrential rains and storms, and New Zealand cut borrowing costs to a record last month to help shore up confidence after the Feb. 22 quake leveled parts of Christchurch and killed at least 170 people. In contrast, policy makers from Beijing to Frankfurt are trying to stamp out inflation with higher rates.

Swan in Washington

Treasurer Wayne Swan travels to Washington today to attend a Group of 20 finance ministers meeting and IMF and World Bank gatherings, his office said in a statement.

“The tragic events in Japan, political instability in North Africa and the Middle East, and persisting sovereign debt concerns in Europe continue to cloud the global economic horizon,” Swan said in today’s statement. He said the Treasury’s analysis showed the impact of natural disasters at home and abroad may cut Australia’s economic growth by as much as 0.75 percentage point in 2010-11.

Australia’s terms of trade, a measure of income earned from exports, are at a 60-year high as Chinese and Indian demand forBuy cheap nike mens acg sandals 2011  iron ore and coal surges. New Zealand’s exports are also gaining on increased Asian demand for the nation’s dairy products.

New Zealand central bank Governor Alan Bollard last month lowered his 2011 growth forecast to 1.3 percent from 2.7 percent and cut borrowing costs to 2.5 percent. Ten of 14 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News forecast the rate will be unchanged until 2012. Four predict a fourth quarter rate rise.

Central Bank Outlook

Australia’s central bank in February raised its forecast for 2011 growth to 4.25 percent, from a November prediction of 3.75 percent, saying flood rebuilding will accelerate in the second half. The IMF’s growth forecast is an annual average, while the central bank’s is measured from the fourth quarter to a year earlier.

Traders see a 26 percent chance Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens will raise interest rates in September, bank bill futures trading yesterday showed.

The IMF forecast Australia’s growth will accelerate to 3.5 percent in 2012, driven by a resource-investment boom and higher commodity prices. New Zealand’s economy will surge 4.1 percent next year, the report showed.

Hiring by mining companies helped drive Australia’s jobless rate down to 4.9 percent in March, matching a two-year low set in December and approaching what government officials view as full employment.

Inflation Forecasts

The IMF forecast Australian consumer prices will increase 3 percent this year and in 2012, the top of the central bank’s target range of 2 percent to 3 percent. It estimated New Zealand’s inflation Reebok ZigTech will accelerate to 4.1 percent this year before slowing to 2.7 percent in 2012.

New Zealand’s central bank aims to keep inflation in a range of 1 percent to 3 percent.

The IMF predicted Australia’s jobless rate would average 5 percent this year and 4.8 percent next year, while New Zealand’s unemployment rate was forecast to decline to 6.2 percent in 2012 from 6.7 percent this year.

In New Zealand, 6.8 percent of the labor force was unemployed in the fourth quarter.

Australia’s currency has risen about 13 percent over the past 12 months, the third-best performer among the 16 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg. New Zealand’s has strengthened 9 percent, the eighth-best performer.

Par birdzwss le mardi 12 avril 2011

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